11:30 AM CDT | May 21, 2018
As mentioned last night, other outlets are beginning to pick up on the potential in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. This is because the weather models appear to be catching onto this as well. I want to take a couple minutes to discuss how this connects to what we saw this fall. Remember, we are in a weather pattern that has been cycling every 47-48 days, give or take a couple days. This means that the same features come into play with each cycle, but they vary to some degree depending on the strength of the jet stream and seasons. Every other cycle tends to mirror each other more closely. Now, the weather pattern we will see later this week is connected to that of which we saw around October 6th, November 22nd, and so forth. You continue that on an average of let's say 47 days, and it brings you to the weather around May 29th. I want to rewind all the way to October 6th. There are two features to watch. The first is a system in the Rockies, and the second is Tropical Storm Nate. Watch these two features.
The Canadian model has a system lifting through the Rockies, and a tropical system moving onshore the northern gulf coast this weekend. The European model shows a similar scenario, but it is weaker with the western system and a little farther north with the storm track. This would have a big impact as it shows the tropical system not being picked up. Instead it shows it meandering toward Texas and lingering near the northwest gulf coast. Again, it is too early to say what exactly will happen later this week and weekend. What we do know is that (1) upper-level energy will move into the Western US and that (2) there will be increased potential for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. If something does indeed develop, it would be named Alberto.