Watching 90L Near The Yucatan Peninsula Today

5:00 PM CDT | May 23, 2018

The National Hurricane Center has given 90L a 60% chance for development over the next 5 days. Development may not occur until this weekend when it moves into the central Gulf of Mexico. Latest satellite imagery shows some bursts of convection, but this activity may struggle to organize due to less-than-favorable upper-level winds right now. If it is able to develop into the season's first named storm, it will be Alberto. Where this feature will track is still uncertain. The favored area appears to be the northern gulf coast, BUT it depends on when and where the closed circulation develops - assuming it does.

Most of the model guidance takes this low near or east of the Mississippi River. Heavy rain will be possible beginning this weekend across the Northern Gulf Coast and Florida. This track would place Texas on the subsident side of the system. This would mean even hotter temperatures late this weekend and next week. There is a very low chance of it drifting farther west, but it would likely mean the circulation forming farther south than what most of the guidance indicates. I will keep a close eye on it over the next several days and update as needed. If/when a closed circulation forms, the model guidance will get a better handle on its future track. Check back here and on Facebook for the latest weather updates!