Weather Discussion #0400

2:15 PM CDT | May 13, 2018

Storms are expected to develop across parts of the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas this afternoon. This activity will track eastward and will be capable of Large Hail and Damaging Winds. The Tornado Risk appears very low at this time. A cluster or two may form this evening, but the activity is likely to collapse as it moves into western North Texas tonight. As the showers and storms fall apart, we could see strong winds over 50 mph.

A better chance for storms is expected for North Texans tomorrow evening into early Tuesday. We will see storms form to the west again, but this time, they will probably make it farther into North Texas. This is why most forecasts show a 30% chance for storms Monday night as far east as Dallas and Fort Worth. Storm clusters this time of year often produce MCV's (meso-convective vortices), which are basically storm-generated areas of low pressure. These features, along with outflow boundaries, can locally increase the risk for storms. The weather pattern over the next few days will be favorable for this to occur. With that in mind, you can expect some adjustments to rain chances over the next few days as each round unfolds. I will be posting periodic updates on the Facebook page, so be sure to Like us and check back!