4:00 PM CDT | June 13, 2018
The main story over the next few days will be what becomes of our tropical disturbance. The National Hurricane Center labeled it as 91L yesterday. Now that it has been labeled, the tropical weather model runs have begun. It is close to moving onshore the Yucatan Peninsula, which will prevent any organization in the near term. It should emerge into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday afternoon, or Thursday evening at the latest. Conditions will be more favorable for development in the Gulf of Mexico, where we could see some organization take place. The window for development in the gulf prior to moving onshore will probably be in the 48-72 hour range, which is a smaller window.
The weather models vary with some showing it reaching tropical depression or storm status. Others show it remaining disorganized and lacking a closed surface low. It will likely be an east-weighted disturbance. This means that most (but not all) of the heavier rainfall will be along and east of its track. If it tracks into Southeast Texas, the greatest rainfall amounts late this weekend and early next week would be across East Texas and Louisiana. If it were to track farther west, the greatest amounts would shift accordingly. If/when a closed surface low develops, the weather models will get a better idea of its future track.
Regardless of development, it will bring better moisture and rain chances to the region. I have posted the latest 7-day rainfall forecast from the National Weather Service. Adjustments can be expected over the next few days, but this is the wettest outlook we have seen in some time. Hopefully, this verifies. Keep an eye on your local forecast, and check the National Hurricane Center periodically for the latest tropical weather information. I will continue to post updates as needed on the blog and Facebook page. You can also subscribe to our email notifications.