9:30 AM CDT | June 2, 2018
Amarillo made it to 108*F yesterday! Fortunately, a cool front is pushing southward, and they will be MUCH cooler this afternoon. Amarillo's high today will be in the 88*-90*F range. Farther south across parts of Western and Northern Texas, this will NOT be the case. The hottest temperatures will pool near the frontal boundary late this afternoon. The Dallas-Fort Worth metro will likely range from 100*F to 104*F, Abilene will be around 100*F, and Midland will be around 104*F. The hottest temperatures will be to the south-southwest of Midland and Odessa, where highs may reach or exceed 110*F. Try to stay out of the heat as much as possible.
By sunset, the latest model guidance suggests that the front will be near a Paris, to Mineral Wells, to San Angelo line. Isolated to widely scattered storms should form near the boundary with the greatest chances around 6:00 to 10:00 PM. Any storms that manage to develop could produce Strong to Damaging Winds. Quarter-size Hail is possible as well, mainly in Northeast Texas. This is the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. The greatest chance for storms (up to 40%) and thus the greatest risk will be in Northeast Texas. Storm chances decrease to the west and southwest.
Cooler temperatures are expected across the northwest half of the state on Sunday. The front will stall in Central Texas where isolated storms could form during peak heating. Additional storms will develop in New Mexico and track into West Texas Sunday evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
The forecast early next week looks like it could bring a slightly better chance for severe weather to parts of Texas. The SPC has a Marginal Risk across Northwestern Texas on Monday with the mention of a possible upgrade in later outlooks. The activity out of West Texas Sunday night could impact the environment, so there is still some uncertainty. That said, the models show a favorable environment for severe storms, possibly supercells, beginning Monday afternoon. A disturbance will be moving across the Central Plains during this time, which will help to weaken the ridge. The coverage of storms Monday afternoon through Tuesday will ultimately depend on the strength of the ridge, which will be influenced by the disturbance. If the disturbance is stronger and tracks farther south as some models suggest, we could see a decent chance for storms (>40%) as far south and east as the I-20 corridor of North Texas. If it is weaker, then coverage may be more isolated. Right now, the National Weather Service appears to be splitting the difference. During the Monday afternoon-Tuesday period, here are the maximum rain chances for a few cities: Wichita Falls - 40%; Abilene - 20%; Dallas-Fort Worth, Gainesville, and Paris - 30%. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time, but it could affect areas farther east, which have not seen much of a storm risk over the last few weeks. We will know more in the next couple of days.