10:00 AM CDT | June 17, 2018
Good morning, everyone! I have good news and some not-so-good news. The increasing moisture will result in scattered showers and storms later today. This first wave will stretch from the middle Texas Coast into Louisiana. It will lift north and northwest through the afternoon hours before weakening toward sunset. Best rain chances (>40%) will be across the southeastern third of the state. Rain chances decrease quickly across Northern and West Central Texas. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the main hazards.
Looking at the latest satellite, it confirms what the National Hurricane Center has stated - that a surface circulation has yet to develop with our gulf disturbance. Convection continues across parts of the gulf, but the area as a whole remains disorganized with only a 20% chance for tropical development. The general model consensus now is that the bulk of the energy will shift toward the lower to middle Texas Coast. With this scenario, heavy rainfall and some flooding would be likely across this part of Texas. You can see this with the latest 5-day rainfall outlook from the National Weather Service. They have widespread amounts of 5-7"+ from Brownsville, to just southwest of Houston, and points just west. Decent amounts of 2-4" are forecast for much of South Central Texas and parts of Southeast Texas. Amounts have decreased a bit across West Central Texas and parts of North Texas. While this is not-so-good news, even if it does hang around South Texas, there *should* still be enough moisture streaming northward to keep at least a 20-30% chance of rain for these areas. Nothing is set in stone yet. There will be some disturbances pass to our north by the middle of next week. The increase in lift will bring a better chance for rain to northern sections of the state, especially if it can help pull the deeper moisture in the southern part of the state farther north.
I wish I had some better news for North Texans. Things can still change, but even if chances only top out at 30-40% through the middle of next week, it is better than what we have seen lately. It's June in Texas, and any amount of moisture we can get is appreciated. I will continue to update as-needed over the next few days. Be sure to check back here and on the Facebook page. For the latest official weather information for your area, visit the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center websites.