8:00 PM CDT | June 3, 2018
Storms in New Mexico are forming into what is called a Mesoscale Convective System, or MCS. For those who may be wondering what is a MCS, it is basically a cluster of storms that operates on a larger scale than individual thunderstorms. They are very organized and persist for several hours. This activity will move into West Texas later this evening with an attendant risk for Damaging Winds and Large Hail. A brief Tornado cannot be entirely ruled out, but the Tornado Risk appears low. While storms will weaken late tonight/early Monday morning, they will still be capable of producing Strong/Damaging Winds across western North Texas.
A MCS can produce what is called a Mesoscale Convective Vortex. This is essentially a storm-generated area of low pressure. These circulations often continue for hours, even after the original thunderstorms have dissipated. We see these often in the late spring and summer months. Some of the model guidance depicts tonight's activity in West Texas generating a MCV that could track on either side of the Red River Monday. Any MCV or outflow boundaries would provide a focus for additional thunderstorms Monday afternoon.
Regardless, we will likely see storms develop in Northwest Texas and Oklahoma late Monday. Winds aloft would carry anything that develops in this area southeast into North Texas Monday night. In short, there will be the potential for Severe Thunderstorms Monday and Monday night. I personally believe that parts of Northwest/North Texas will be upgraded to a Slight Risk in later outlooks. Damaging Winds of 60-70 MPH and Quarter to Golf Ball-size Hail look to be the main concerns. The Tornado Risk appears low at this time.
I will be posting updates on the Facebook page, and I will try to post a discussion on the blog Monday morning. Be sure to check back!