9:30 PM CDT | June 11, 2018
After weeks of tranquil weather in the Atlantic, there are signs of life again. The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean. Here is what they had to say this evening: "This area of disturbed weather is expected to move westward over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days, and little, if any, development is expected during that time. Environmental conditions could become slightly conducive for some development when the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week."
I agree with their thinking which is that conditions will gradually become more favorable in a few days. They give it a 10% chance for development within the next 48 hours, and a 20% chance for development in the next 5 days. This should not be surprising to those who have been following this page. We knew that conditions could become more favorable for tropical development in June. A few days ago, rumors began spreading on Facebook of a hurricane hitting the Texas Coast. This was because someone began sharing graphics from a weather model. This particular weather model is notorious for generating "phantom" systems a week out only to have them disappear in later runs. Many jumped to dispel these rumors, as the model graphics were being presented as actual forecasts. The problem is that now many people are confused on what to expect later this week.
In the previous post, we discussed that, while these model graphics were unlikely to happen and were misinforming the public, conditions would gradually become more favorable for tropical development late this week. This has to do with reasons beyond the weather models. Generally speaking, if you draw an "X" through these rumors without further explaining the situation, it can complicate matters further. It is important to take a few more minutes to fully address the situation to resolve the issue and not create another. Social media is a sensitive platform when it comes to getting information out.
So, what can we expect? This area will lift into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Conditions will become more favorable for tropical development by this time. How organized it can get once in the Gulf of Mexico has yet to be determined. Texas will need to watch in the coming days as the steering winds will take it in our general direction. There is no reason to panic. Just keep an eye on your forecast. I will continue to post updates as needed on the blog and Facebook page. You can also subscribe to our email notifications.