Weather Discussion #0408

9:20 AM CDT | June 4, 2018

Last night's storms generated a Meso-Convective Vortex that is currently located in Northwest Texas. The original thunderstorm cluster has weakened considerably since daybreak, but this feature will continue to provide a source of lift today. Given its current pace, it would likely be just north of Dallas-Fort Worth mid to late this afternoon. Right now, widespread cloudiness and lingering showers and storms are limiting instability. If we get some good breaks in the cloud cover over the next few hours, pockets of greater instability will develop. This MCV would need to be monitored for Strong to Severe Storm development this afternoon in North Texas. The morning model guidance is just now arriving. Looking at last night's runs, some of the hi-res guidance showed pockets of higher instability this afternoon resulting in a few severe storms. Others were not as aggressive with the environment recovering and showed little in the way of strong storms.

Clouds tend to burn off more quickly in June than April or May. With that in mind, I have to lean more toward the redevelopment of a few strong to severe storms this afternoon. If clouds thin and enough instability is realized, the expected shear would support organized storms capable of Quarter to Ping Pong Ball-size Hail and Damaging Winds. The Tornado Risk still appears low. Hopefully, we see some more rain, but the severe risk stays in check.

The SPC has a Marginal Risk for much of North Central/Northeast Texas today and tonight. This appears reasonable given the current uncertainty. Most models still indicate more storms developing after sunset near and north of the Red River. This activity would track toward the southeast into North Texas. This is what most forecasts reflect at this time, but again, tonight's storm chances will be influenced by what happens today.

To recap, there will be the potential for a few severe storms through tonight. The magnitude of the risk will be determined by how much the atmosphere can destabilize. I will be posting updates on the Facebook page throughout the day. Be sure to check back.