Weather Discussion #0412

10:30 AM CDT | June 15, 2018

The discussion below was originally posted on the Facebook page today at 9:30 AM. I have also attached yesterday's discussion below this morning's satellite graphic, regarding the strong upper-level winds and shear in the Gulf of Mexico. It was originally posted at 2:30 PM yesterday. Be sure to check back for updates.

"The National Hurricane Center stopped tracking 91L last night. The last estimated position was just to the west-northwest of the Yucatan. This morning, an impressive area of storms can be seen to the east. Shear has decreased slightly since yesterday afternoon, and it will continue to do so. I still believe it is worth watching the western gulf over the next few days. Regardless of tropical development, this surge of tropical moisture will bring better rain chances late this weekend and next week."

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"The National Hurricane Center lowered 91L's chance for development to 10% over the next 5 days. Right now, strong upper-level winds and shear are impacting it from the west. Tropical disturbances have difficulty generating and sustaining thunderstorms when they are experiencing strong upper-level winds and shear. A tropical disturbance or cyclone will become "tilted" toward the direction that the wind shear is blowing. A tilted system has trouble organizing and will be torn apart. In lighter shear environments, strong storms can develop and organize. Over time, they will begin organizing. Surface pressure will lower, and a low-level circulation will develop. As long as the developing system can continue to pull in warm, moist air over the water without the harmful affects from strong winds and shear, it will continue to strengthen.

If upper-level winds and shear decrease in the western Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday, as the latest data suggests, I still believe there will be a window where we could see it organize. Is it likely? I would not say it is "likely" to develop at this time, but I do give it more than a 10% chance. Time will tell. Either way, the increase in moisture will bring a better chance for rain late this weekend and next week."