What's The Latest On The Tropics?

5:30 PM CDT | June 9, 2018

A few weather models are showing the possibility of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico late next week or next weekend. Others like the European weather model show little to no chance for tropical development. A couple of these models are known for developing random tropical systems in one model run only to have them disappear the next model run. I mentioned at the end of May that, "conditions could become more favorable for tropical development as we get into mid-June." You can check out that post here: http://texasstormwatch.com/2018/05/cool-front-to-drop-temps-a-few-degrees.html.

When I stated this, these weather models were not showing this possibility. In fact, mid-June was outside the range of some of these models. The reason I made that statement is because of other factors I have been monitoring. There is a disturbance that tracks eastward across the globe called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. When it is enhancing showers and storms across one portion of the globe, it is suppressing it in other parts. Right now, the Eastern Pacific Ocean is active with Hurricane Aletta and Tropical Depression Three-E. Three-E is forecast to become a Hurricane to the west of Mexico Sunday night or Monday morning. Meanwhile, the Western Atlantic is completely quiet. The MJO will likely be moving into a more favorable phase for the Gulf of Mexico and Western Atlantic late next week. This, combined with what I have been monitoring with the recurring cycle theory, leads me to believe that conditions will gradually become more favorable several days from now. Just because conditions will become more favorable in the Western Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico does not guarantee that something will develop. What it does mean is that we will have to keep a closer eye on this region.

One final note is to be careful what you read and share on social media. Apparently, some are sharing graphics depicting a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this next week. It is irresponsible to post these graphics which are picked from a single model. Weather models are tools that meteorologists and forecasters take into consideration when making forecasts, they are not forecasts themselves. Model accuracy also decreases the further you go in time. For official information on tropical weather, please refer to the National Hurricane Center's website. Only share posts from trusted outlets, not outlets creating hype and anxiety to get clicks.