When Could The Tropics Become More Active?

9:30 PM CDT | June 25, 2018

We are entering a drier weather pattern yet again as we wind up the month of June. There are only a few areas that are not running a moisture deficit this month. Most of the Texas Coast has been wetter than normal thanks to our tropical disturbance last week. There are other areas such as parts of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle which have gained some ground this month. Other parts of the state, particularly North Central Texas, is sinking further into drought. Since we are going into a calmer period, I thought I would take a look at the tropics.

The Atlantic basin is quiet at this time. It will likely continue to be quiet in the near future. Looking at our weather pattern and breaking down the data that is available, here is what I am seeing. First off, the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico always deserve some attention in the summer, but the period I will be especially watching is around July 12-18th. Again, this is not to say we will not see anything before then, but the overall conditions should become more favorable on our side of the globe by that time. This is not based on the weather models, but it is worth mentioning that some of the weather models show the Madden-Julian Oscillation moving into a more favorable phase by the second week of June. You may remember that this was one of the indicators leading up to the recent tropical disturbance. For more information on the Madden-Julian Oscillation, check out this article. The Climate Prediction Center has an excellent page on it as well, where you can also view the model guidance. Check back here and on the Facebook page for the latest weather updates.