Weather Discussion #0420

9:15 AM CDT | July 11, 2018

I want to take a quick look at the latest satellite image this morning. We have Hurricane Chris to the east of the United States. Farther south in the Bahamas, you can see the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. This area of disturbed weather could redevelop late this week or weekend as it lifts northward. I want to point out something else. You probably notice a dusty appearance in the lower right corner. This is the dry, dusty air from the Sahara. It suppresses tropical development and (at the very least) disrupts organization in a tropical cyclone. The combination of increasing shear and this dry air is what collapsed Hurricane Beryl several days ago. There is another area of dry air noted from the Yucatan Peninsula northwestward into Northern Mexico and Texas.

On June 25th, I discussed that the tropics could become more active as we got into the month of July. I mentioned that the period I would be especially watching was around July 12-18th. Obviously, conditions became more favorable in the Central Atlantic earlier than anticipated. One factor that has suppressed convection closer to home, in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, is this dry air. Unfortunately, factors such as this are hard to predict more than a week away.

Nonetheless, parts of the state will continue to see at least a slight chance for storms over the next couple of days. The favored area for rain today is across the east. You can see the latest rain chances from the National Weather Service below. Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds are the main hazards. A brief severe storm with Damaging Winds cannot be ruled out, but the risk is low. Yesterday, most storms stayed below severe limits, but a couple cells went severe in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The city of Euless reported wind damage yesterday afternoon. Otherwise, more of the same is expected with these hit and miss storms. You may be fortunate enough to pick up a quick .50" from a storm, but a friend a mile away may see nothing at all.

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