Hurricane Lane Impacting Hawaii

2:00 PM CDT | August 23, 2018

Hurricane Lane is approaching the Hawaiian Islands right now. Its maximum sustained winds are at 130mph, but fortunately, steady weakening is expected. By Friday night or early Saturday morning, it is forecast to become a Tropical Storm. The local National Weather Service office in Honolulu stated this morning that, "Hurricane Lane will likely bring life threatening conditions across Hawaii through Saturday with damaging winds, dangerous surf, coastal storm surge and intense flooding rains." Indeed, some significant rainfall is expected along with the potential for some isolated tornadoes and waterspouts. Dangerous situation for folks there.

As for tropical activity closer to home, there is a wave coming off the coast of Africa that could be of interest next week as it tracks westward across the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 10% chance for development in several days. At the start of the month, I mentioned that conditions in the tropics should become more favorable at the end of the month and in early September. I believe this is the first sign of that happening. This goes back to the recurring cycle theory and the weather pattern we have seen since last fall. There has been a tendency for lower pressure in the Gulf and Western Atlantic during this next part of the cycle. One thing working against this, however, is the developing El Nino in the Pacific. While El Nino means warmer temperatures and more favorable conditions in the Pacific (see Hurricane Lane), it usually brings quieter conditions to the Atlantic. We will see what takes shape at the end of the month and, particularly, in early September.

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