Weather Discussion #0424

2:30 PM CDT | August 11, 2018

Severe risk appears very low today. A storm or two could briefly become severe with damaging winds, but heavy rain and lightning are the biggest concerns for the state. Disturbance in West Texas becomes more neutrally-tilted late Sunday. This means a bit stronger shear for organized storms, but if widespread clouds and subsidence from earlier activity holds the instability down, the severe risk would remain limited tomorrow.

The feature will lift into the High Plains on Monday. Shear will be sufficient for a few severe storms. Main uncertainty is the degree of destabilization Monday afternoon and early evening. If the atmosphere destabilizes, isolated severe storms would be possible, mainly across parts of North Central Texas, on Monday. It would not be anything widespread, but there is the possibility from what I am seeing.

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