9:30 AM CDT | September 13, 2018
The chance of 95L developing is back down to 50%, according to the National Hurricane Center. The disturbance has failed to sustain deeper convection near its center. Storms develop early each day, but then they fizzle by evening. While shear is weak closer to the coast, it increases near and east of 95L. This appears to be impacting it this morning. We may see an increase in organization before it moves inland, but the window for development is closing as it will move onshore Friday.
Even if it does not develop, it will still bring locally heavy rainfall and some gusty winds to parts of Texas through the weekend. The strongest showers and storms may produce winds of 40-50 mph and possibly a few tropical funnel clouds. The overall severe risk appears low at this time. Localized flooding is likely, particularly from coastal areas into South Central Texas. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for much of the Texas Coast. Additional counties farther north and west may be placed under a Flash Flood Watch, depending on the trends. You can see the forecast rainfall amounts into Sunday morning below.
As mentioned yesterday, we will have to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Isaac which is entering the Caribbean. This system is expected to continue weakening over the next few days. Once it moves into the Western/Northwest Caribbean by Tuesday, it could encounter more favorable conditions. If the remnant circulation is at least somewhat intact by that time, it could regenerate. It is something to watch this weekend and next week. Otherwise, the weather-maker over the next few days will be the increasing moisture from 95L, regardless of development. Stay tuned for the latest updates!