11:15 AM CDT | September 30, 2018
This is the final day of September. It has been a very wet month for most Texans. Today, many will have a chance to dry out some with sunshine and very mild temperatures for this time of year. To our west, a much more active weather pattern is developing. Hurricane Rosa will continue to weaken west of Baja California today and will soon become a tropical storm. It will weaken to a depression Monday evening and track into Arizona Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Flooding is expected from Southeast California and Arizona into Nevada and Utah. I wanted to share a loop from one of this morning's models with you. This is what the NAM (North American Mesoscale Model) is showing from 7:00 AM this morning to 7:00 PM Wednesday in the 500mb level of our atmosphere. The 500mb graphics are ideal for looking at the overall trough/ridge pattern in the mid-levels of our atmosphere.
You can see a trough in the Pacific picking up Rosa and lifting the remnants across Baja California, through Arizona, and into the Rockies. While not shown, the majority of the weather models show this trough weakening as it lifts northeast through the Rockies on Thursday. This would place the best lift for storms to our north across the Central Plains. Thereafter, several models suggest a stronger system digging into the Western US during the late Friday-Saturday time-frame. This could set the stage for an active period of weather in the Plains by next weekend. This will be part of the new weather pattern, which would be very encouraging, if it verifies. Right now, we just wait and see. :)
For local weather information, visit the National Weather Service website. Check the blog daily for the latest weather discussions. You can also join the Texas Storm Watch Group via the Facebook page.
*Weather model graphics courtesy of the College of DuPage, NEXLAB: http://weather.cod.edu.