11:00 AM CDT | September 25, 2018
Cooler air is spreading southward behind a cold front. This front currently stretches from the Texas Panhandle into Northeast Kansas. Storm chances later today will be greatest (up to 30-40%) along this boundary where a stray severe storm cannot be ruled out. Showers and storms will increase along and north of the cold front this evening and overnight. By midnight, it should be near a Midland/Odessa, to Jacksboro, to Fort Smith line.
This activity will continue on Wednesday, gradually spreading eastward as the day progresses. Rainfall will not be as heavy as the last round, but additional moisture will aggravate areas that are trying to dry out from the recent flooding. It will be the first "chilly" day for western portions of the state where some will likely top out in the 50*F's for highs. Overnight lows will be in the 40*F's for many areas, including Amarillo and Lubbock. Traditionally cooler areas of the Texas Panhandle and West Texas could drop into the upper-30*F's late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Across Northern and Central Texas, cooler weather is expected, but it will not be as cold as areas farther north and west.
The last thing I want to discuss is what is the weather pattern. A new weather pattern will begin setting up in the first week of October. The old one that developed last fall is falling apart now. The long-range weather models have been consistent in showing a trough digging into the western United States by October 1st. Previous model runs showed this energy sweeping eastward through the Plains. This would bring widespread thunderstorms, some strong, to the region. Last night, however, most models backed off on this scenario. Instead, they showed this energy being trapped along the West Coast with a ridge over the Rockies and portions of the Plains. I will keep an eye on the trends and will continue to update the blog.
For the latest official weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. I also recommend joining the new Texas Storm Watch Group on Facebook. Simply sign into Facebook and send a request to join the group.