9:30 AM CDT | September 2, 2018
The tropical wave that we have been watching is now being tracked as Invest 91L. It has a much better appearance on satellite this morning as it approaches Florida. Since it appears to be getting better organized, the National Hurricane Center has officially labeled it and begun running the tropical weather models. You can see this morning's runs from the South Florida Water Management District. The model guidance is in good agreement that it will track into the Florida Straits over the next 24 hours with little or no land interaction. As upper-level winds become more favorable, we could see it become better organized. Officially, it has a 50% chance for tropical development over the next 48 hours and a 80% chance over the next 5 days.
As discussed yesterday morning, how quickly it develops a well-defined low-level circulation (LLC) will influence its track. Generally speaking, the more aggressive models show a track farther west toward or into Texas by mid or possibly late next week. Less aggressive models that show it struggling to organize show a track farther east into the Northern Gulf Coast. This is similar to what the tropical weather models are showing at this time.
It is important not to put too much stock into what the models are showing right now. It is looking pretty good on satellite this morning, but until it forms a closed circulation, confidence in the model solutions will be less than normal. Expect the weather models to shift around over the next few days as this system evolves. Keep an eye on the forecast if you live near or along the gulf coast. The latest official information from the National Hurricane Center can be found here. I will continue to post updates on the blog, so be sure to check back!