9:30 AM CDT | September 21, 2018
An area of low pressure is developing to the northwest of Abilene. Showers and thunderstorms are shifting north and east across Northwest Texas and West Central Texas this morning. Heavy Rain, Lightning, and Gusty Winds will be the hazards this morning. As we begin to heat up, additional thunderstorms will develop across North Texas as the low continues to organize to the west.
The surface low will gradually shift eastward through Saturday. The greatest rainfall amounts will occur near the surface low and the effective frontal boundary. This suggests that North Texas, including the I-35 corridor, will be at risk for significant rainfall. Many who are under a Flash Flood Watch will see between 1 and 5 inches. I am concerned with locally significant amounts between 6 and 10 inches within the watch area. If these heavier amounts verify, it will lead to some very dangerous flooding and road/bridge closures. If you live in a flood prone area, you need to pay attention to the latest information from the National Weather Service.
There is also a risk for severe weather during this time-frame. The favored area for a few strong to severe storms today and into tonight will be generally along and west of the I-35/35E corridor of North Texas. More specifically, it will be near and to the southeast of the surface low where low-level winds will strengthen by late afternoon and evening. I want to be clear - I do not expect widespread severe weather. I do believe a few severe storms are possible, though. The main concern will be damaging winds followed by a brief tornado or two. Small hail is possible, but the environment suggests more of a conditional wind/tornado risk. This conditional risk will shift eastward with the low on Saturday.
I will continue to keep an eye on things and will update the blog again later today. If you follow the Facebook page, I would strongly recommend you also join the new Texas Storm Watch Group. You can join the group via the pinned post on the Facebook page. Facebook often limits the reach of page updates to try and force page owners to purchase advertising to "boost" their posts' reach. Groups are considered non-business in nature and reach a greater percentage of people. Early stats continue to suggest around 50% or more in the group see the updates in their newsfeeds, compared to as little as 4% on the page. You can also share your weather pictures in the group for others to see!