9:00 PM CDT | September 19, 2018
As an upper-level system approaches from the west, rain chances will be on the increase starting tomorrow. Rain chances will be on the rise by Thursday afternoon across far West Texas. These chances will increase significantly and spread farther east Thursday night. For Thursday night, a 90% chance for Heavy Rain is forecast for Amarillo with a 70% chance for Lubbock. These chances will decrease to 30% or less for places farther east like Wichita Falls and Abilene. Localized flooding will be possible Thursday night.
Thunderstorms spread eastward on Friday with the greatest chances across Northwest Texas and western North Texas. Activity will continue shifting eastward this weekend. Flooding is expected during this time-frame. Isolated rainfall amounts in excess of 4-6" will be possible where storms track over the same areas. Regarding Severe Weather, the weather models suggest that an area of low pressure will develop in Northwest Texas by Friday morning. Some strengthening of the low-level winds would be expected if this verifies; however, wind shear is forecast to remain fairly weak. Also, widespread cloud cover and rain could hinder greater low-level instability from developing. Right now, I believe a few marginally severe storms may occur near the surface low and frontal boundary. These features could be located in Northwest/West Central Texas on Friday or as far east as western North Texas. Lift will be greater near these features and could support a few storms with damaging winds and small hail. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, given the moist environment and low cloud bases. Away from the boundary and surface low, the strongest storms will be capable of strong winds and lightning, in addition to heavy rain. This location of the surface features and associated severe potential will be monitored.