10:00 AM CDT | September 18, 2018
Over the last week or two, it has begun to look a bit more like fall outside. The shorter days, the angle of the sun in the evenings, etc. The leaves have not started to change - I mean it's still Texas. ;) Still, there has definitely been a shift into more fall-like conditions. When will we see our first REAL cold front of the season? I will get to that in a minute, but let's look at the weather ahead.
There is a tropical disturbance near Baja California. As upper-level energy tracks into the Western US over the next 24-36 hours, it will lift this moisture into the Desert Southwest and then into West Texas. Rain chances increase significantly on Thursday across western portions of the state. As we get into Friday and Saturday, we will see increasing moisture from the gulf as well. The remnants of Isaac are now expected to move into the gulf by Wednesday evening and will approach the northwest gulf coast by Friday. The National Hurricane Center has stopped tracking the remnants, but I will keep an eye on it nonetheless for any signs of organization once it is in the gulf. Regardless, the moisture from this feature will lift into the state Friday-Saturday. The combination of increasing lift and some Pacific moisture from the west and gulf moisture from the southeast will likely set the stage for decent rain chances across much of the state on Friday. The best rain chances this weekend will be across the eastern half of the state. The overall severe risk appears low at this time, but locally heavy rain, lightning, and strong winds can be expected with the strongest cells. Localized Flooding will be possible given the rainfall we have already seen this month. This is a video showing the rain chances Wednesday, Wednesday Night, Thursday... all the way through Sunday. Some adjustments can be expected over the next few days.
Looking into the long-range, the models are suggesting that our first real cold front may arrive in the last week of September. This would be in line with climatology. Visit the blog daily to see the latest weather updates. You can also join the new Texas Storm Watch Group. More information can be found on the Texas Storm Watch Facebook page.