10:00 PM CDT | September 11, 2018
I am watching 95L in the Gulf of Mexico closely. The National Hurricane Center has given it a 50/50 chance for development over the next 48 hours with a 70% chance over the next several days. It showed signs of organization near the Yucatan earlier today, but strong convection has diminished near the apparent circulation (just north of the Yucatan Peninsula). It looks like some additional storms are trying to form, but in order for this disturbance to develop, convection will need to become stronger and much more widespread. If/when stronger convection can build around the circulation, we will see decreasing surface pressure and better organization. Right now, dry air and some wind shear appear to be impacting this disturbance. Conditions will become a bit more favorable on Wednesday.
The latest model guidance suggests that 95L will move into South Texas late this week. There are outliers to the north and south, but the model consensus at this time is South Texas. If the track were to shift farther north (near/N of Corpus Christi), rain chances would increase for northern portions of the state late this week and weekend. Otherwise, the current forecast suggests that the best rain chances will be across the southern half of the state.
We will have to wait and see what happens with 95L over the next 48 hours. It has a ways to go before I would say it is "likely" to develop, so the 50/50 chance between now and Thursday evening looks good, in my opinion. Regardless of development, it will bring more gulf moisture and rain chances to parts of the state. Just keep an eye on the latest from the National Hurricane Center over the next few days. I will continue to post updates on the blog, so be sure to check back daily!