4:45 PM CDT | September 20, 2018
Widely scattered showers and storms are tracking northward across the heart of Texas this afternoon. This activity is capable of brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. It will decrease in coverage this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Farther west, additional showers and a few storms are approaching from New Mexico. This activity will spread into the Texas Panhandle and West Texas this evening and overnight. More showers and storms are expected to develop tonight, particularly after midnight, across Northwest/West Central Texas. The severe risk will be very low, but heavy rain, lightning, and strong winds can be expected with the strongest cells tonight.
Things get a bit more interesting on Friday. Activity should be widespread across Northwest Texas by Friday morning with a developing area of low pressure. Where this surface low develops will have an impact on where the heaviest rainfall amounts will reside. The National Weather Service offices have issued a Flash Flood Watch for a good portion of Texas and Oklahoma. The counties under a Flash Flood Watch are highlighted in yellow on the above radar image. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the state Friday/Friday night. Widespread amounts of 2-5" are likely across the watch area, but some people will see lesser amounts. Where storms track over the same areas, isolated areas could see 6-10" through Saturday in my honest opinion. If you are in a flood prone area, pay attention to the latest watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.
A secondary concern for severe weather will exist. As discussed yesterday, there will be the potential for a *few* severe storms capable of primarily damaging winds. A tornado or two will be possible Friday and possibly Saturday. This risk will be greatest near (1) the surface low and (2) in the vicinity of the effective frontal boundary. The risk would increase if we get some breaks in the clouds which would increase surface instability. The overall risk appears marginal at this time, but it will be monitored.
For official weather information, visit the National Weather Service website. I will continue to update the blog, so check back for the latest updates. You can also join the new Texas Storm Watch Group on Facebook where you can see updates and share your weather pictures!