9:30 AM CDT | September 10, 2018
We have another tropical disturbance to watch this week. There is a feature near the Yucatan Peninsula that will be worth monitoring when it moves into the gulf. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 10% chance for development over the next 48 hours. This increases to 40% over the next 5 days. The majority of the model guidance lifts this feature into Texas late this week.
It does not appear that the National Hurricane Center has labeled it as an invest yet. This is possible later today or tomorrow. Once this happens and they officially begin tracking it, the "hurricane" models will begin. On a separate note, I do believe this is likely part of the recurring cycle. I mentioned at the start of the month that the third week of September could feature some trouble in the gulf. In mid-June, we saw another tropical disturbance lift from the Yucatan toward Texas. This feature never developed, but it brought lots of rain to coastal regions of the state. This was two cycles ago. Our weather pattern has been cycling about every 47-48 days, give or take. Two cycles would be about 94 days ago. The following article was published on June 13th, which was 89 days ago: http://texasstormwatch.com/2018/06/91l-to-move-into-gulf-on-thursday.html.
This would be a bit early, but since our cycling weather pattern will gradually become less defined ahead of the new pattern, it is possible. Our next weather pattern should begin developing in early October. Regardless, we have something to watch this week that could bring more rain to the state. I will keep an eye on things and update the blog daily. Check back for the latest weather updates!