10:45 PM CDT | September 12, 2018
Hurricane Florence has continued an unexpected weakening trend since the last discussion. Maximum winds are now at 110 mph, which is a Category 2 Hurricane. At 10:00 PM, the National Hurricane Center noted, "significant changes in the structure of Florence and the environment near the storm since the last advisory." The eyewall now surrounds less than half of the circulation. Some wind shear is affecting the system, but this will begin to relax Thursday morning. The system will also interact with the Gulf Stream on Thursday. It is uncertain whether or not Florence will re-strengthen on Thursday when it encounters a bit more favorable conditions. Hopefully, this does not happen. Officially, the National Hurricane Center holds its winds steady at 110 mph through 7:00 PM Thursday before showing gradual but steady weakening thereafter.
Even though Florence has weakened, its wind field has expanded in the process. The National Hurricane Center explains that the larger wind field will "...produce storm surges similar to that of a more intense, but smaller, hurricane..." Thus, significant impacts are still expected for parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic in the form of damaging winds, storm surge, and flooding. For more information on 95L in the gulf and Isaac approaching the Caribbean, you can refer to the previous discussion: Wednesday's Tropical Summary. I will post an update on Thursday to cover the latest on the tropics. For the latest products from the National Hurricane Center, please click here.