8:45 AM CDT | September 8, 2018
After consecutive months of dry weather, we are finally seeing a break. September has been off to a wetter start for most areas. You can see what the rainfall departures from normal have been from September 1st through the 6th. This has yet to take into account the rainfall since yesterday. This is good news for a state that has been battling drought for some time now.
This increase in rainfall may have been foreshadowed in 2009. As discussed here several weeks ago, there are a few analog years I am watching in regards to this winter. There have only been a few times we have experienced an El Nino right on the heels of a La Nina. The 2009-2010 season was one of these. Toward the end of August, I compared the month's temperature trends to what we saw in August of 2009. As you can see here, it was very similar. What happened in 2009 was that the heat finally broke in September and much wetter conditions returned to Texas and areas to the east.
We will begin to see a drying trend starting tomorrow; however, I believe rain chances will increase again later this month. I am still watching the third week of September for increasing rain chances and the possibility of some trouble in the gulf. This upcoming part of the weather pattern can be traced back to mid-June. Our weather pattern will start to fall apart in late September with a new one developing in early October. With the influence of the developing El Nino, it will be something to watch.
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