3:30 PM CDT | October 28, 2018
Halloween is almost here. Next, it will be Thanksgiving, Christmas, and then New Year's. What is our weather looking like for Halloween? Unfortunately, a fairly strong disturbance will be rolling across the state. Ahead of this feature, a weaker disturbance will pass to our north on Tuesday. This disturbance will drag a cold front into the state. By early Tuesday evening, the model guidance brings it near a Tulsa, to Mineral Wells, to Midland/Odessa line. Temperatures will be in the 70*F's ahead of the boundary. Despite mid-60*F dew points and moderate shear in the warm sector, the guidance does not show robust storm development along the front late Tuesday afternoon. A closer look at the data shows a layer of warm air just above the surface. There will be a chance for showers and a few storms Tuesday evening along the boundary, but the potential for surface-based storms appears very low given the likelihood of a cap. As the primary system moves into the region, showers and storms will increase Tuesday night, particularly after midnight. The cold front will gradually but steadily push east and southeast through Wednesday.
A few severe storms will be possible in Eastern and Central Texas on Wednesday. The details should become much clearer by Tuesday. As far as trick-or-treating weather is concerned, the most ideal conditions appear to be in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. Evening temperatures will be in the 40*F's and 50*F's; however, it is expected to be dry. The worst conditions Wednesday evening will be from Northeast/East Central Texas through Southeast Texas where widespread showers and storms will be ongoing. Between these areas, it is more of a question mark, as it could swing either way depending on the timing of the system.
The system will move onshore the West Coast Monday afternoon-evening. This means that tomorrow evening's model runs will have better data available to them. If there are going to be any bigger changes, this is usually when they show. The trend as of late has been for a stronger system. This is unfortunate as it means a slower system compared to if it stayed weaker and more progressive.