10:45 AM CDT | October 30, 2018
Halloween is just one day away! Unfortunately, it looks stormy for a good portion of the state. Today, we will see a cold front reach a Tulsa, to Bowie, to Abilene line around sunset. A capping inversion just above the surface should keep the boundary pretty quiet, other than a few showers and perhaps an isolated storm. No Severe Weather is expected through this evening.
The cold front will slow down tonight. Showers and storms are expected to increase overnight and tomorrow morning as the system approaches from the west. A few hailers are possible in West Central Texas during the pre-dawn hours. By early to mid-morning, the cold front should lie near a Paris, to DFW, to Comanche line. Activity will become more widespread by this time on both sides of the frontal boundary. Locally heavy rainfall, lightning, and hail will be possible with the strongest cells north of the boundary. Along and to the south and east of the boundary, there will be a risk for Damaging Winds, Hail, and possibly a brief Tornado during the morning and midday hours. I anticipate an increasing Severe Risk during the afternoon hours. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and a few Tornadoes appear likely. I looked over the morning model data and decided to draw up a quick graphic. The graphic below shows the approximate location of the frontal boundary tomorrow morning and by late afternoon. It also depicts the low-level jet and mid-level winds during the late afternoon hours. The most favorable environment for Tornadoes may setup from mid-afternoon through late-evening across the highlighted area, in my opinion. The bulk of the activity will shift to our east late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.
I have also attached the official outlook from the Storm Prediction Center below. You can see that their area of greatest risk is similar to where I have highlighted above. From here on out, I will only be referring to the Storm Prediction Center outlooks so as to avoid any confusion. In short, trick-or-treating conditions will not be good across Eastern/Southeast Texas and parts of Central Texas Wednesday evening. The driest conditions will be across West Texas and the Texas Panhandle, but temperatures will be chilly. In between, it will be hit and miss. Just keep an eye on the weather as some adjustments can be expected over the next 24 hours. I will be posting updates on Facebook throughout the day tomorrow. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website.