9:45 AM CDT | October 3, 2018
Big changes in our weather pattern will begin shortly. The trough that we discussed a few days ago is moving onshore the West Coast. This system will bring a risk of Severe Weather to the Desert Southwest later today. This feature will weaken as it pushes northeast, but there will be enough lift for a few storms Thursday afternoon in the Texas Panhandle/Northwest Texas. A Severe Storm or two will be possible Thursday afternoon and early evening.
More significant changes will occur Friday night and Saturday when a stronger trough will dig into the Western US. The trough will deepen through Sunday as it becomes established across the Rockies. Southwest flow aloft will bring stormy weather from West Texas, through the Central Plains, and into the Upper-Mississippi Valley. Farther east, a layer of warm air aloft (the cap) will limit storm chances across Northern and Central Texas. The system is forecast to eject eastward into the Plains early next week. Storm chances will shift eastward as it does. There will be the potential for Heavy Rainfall and Flooding this weekend and early next week. You can see the latest 7-Day Rainfall Forecast from NOAA below. Expect some adjustments to the amounts over the next few days.
Regarding the Severe Risk, at least a few Severe Storms are expected. The primary uncertainties at this time are (1) how widespread rain/clouds will impact instability and (2) how far south the trough will swing into the Plains. Some models bring the base of the trough into Texas and Oklahoma early next week, while others show it passing just to our north. The first scenario would bring an increased risk of storms, some severe, to the state.
For the latest official weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. I also recommend joining the new Texas Storm Watch Group on Facebook. Simply sign into Facebook and send a request to join the group.