1:45 PM CDT | October 10, 2018
A significant weather system rolled through the Plains yesterday. Severe Storms impacted areas from Texas to Wisconsin. There were a total of 48 Severe Weather Reports on Tuesday. Twenty-six of these reports were Tornado Reports. A Tornado touched down north of Crawford, Texas. Oklahoma was hit hard with at least six Tornadoes confirmed in the Oklahoma City metro and areas just east. Several Tornadoes were also reported in Iowa, along with a couple reports in Missouri and Western Arkansas.
This past weather system was the first one to impact the region in this new weather pattern. This weather pattern will continue to evolve over the next several weeks. Once it is finished, it will begin cycling. In past years, the weather pattern had a cycle anywhere from about 40-60 days. This means that it could begin to repeat as early as the third week of November or as late as the first week of December. When it does, we will likely see yet another dynamic system track into the Plains with both thunderstorm and winter weather potential. If you have followed Texas Storm Watch since last fall, you probably remember that our most recent weather pattern repeated every 47-48 days. For those who are new, I would encourage you to take a look at our About page to learn more about the recurring cycle theory and to see a recent example of it. It is not a perfect forecasting tool, but it gives us insight into upcoming systems and is amazing to watch!
In the Eastern Pacific, we have Tropical Storm Sergio which is forecast to lift northeast into West Texas on Saturday. This will be our next weather system as it possibly combines with a mid-latitude system. The weather models are still struggling a bit on the exact track. The track will have an impact on the forecast, especially in regards to any severe potential. If the system tracks near or north of the Red River, it would place Northern Texas in a favorable area for strong storms this weekend. If it tracks farther south or is weaker, then we would still see rainfall; however, the severe risk would be less and likely limited to Central Texas. We should know more tomorrow. Much cooler air will push into the state late this weekend and early next week. Again, this is all part of our new weather pattern that we will see repeat itself through the upcoming winter, spring, and even summer. Once we determine the cycle length in the latter part of November or early December, we can project out.
For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also visit us on Facebook. You don't want to miss any weather updates as we watch this exciting pattern develop!