10:00 AM CDT | October 8, 2018
There is a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for much of West Texas today and tonight. Scattered storms are expected today across the state. A few Severe Storms will be possible, particularly in the western part of the state. Similar to yesterday, Damaging Winds and Large Hail will be the main hazards, but an isolated Tornado is possible. Later this evening and overnight, the majority of the weather models show a squall line developing in West Texas. Damaging Winds would become increasingly likely with the squall line. Some Hail would also be possible along with brief spin-ups. This brief Tornado potential would be enhanced by any bows that form. This is where the forecast becomes more complicated.
The evolution of the squall line, assuming it develops as most of the guidance suggests, will have an impact on Tuesday's weather. There are a couple different scenarios that could unfold, as shown by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth early this morning. The first is that the line of storms moves into western North Texas Tuesday morning and falls apart near the I-35 corridor during the midday hours. Additional strong to severe storms develop in the afternoon near/west of the initial activity. This activity shifts eastward through the evening hours.
The second scenario is that the line of storms moves into western North Texas Tuesday morning and continues eastward. This activity would gradually weaken by early afternoon, but it would be widespread enough to limit instability and prevent additional strong storms from developing in the afternoon. In both scenarios, strong to damaging winds will be possible with the line in western North Texas tomorrow morning, followed by hail and perhaps a brief spin-up. In the first scenario, there would be the potential for supercells during the afternoon and evening hours. Damaging Winds to 65 mph, Half Dollar-size Hail, and a couple Tornadoes would be possible. In the second scenario, additional development would be unlikely, and a much calmer evening would be in store for North Central Texas.
The last thing I want to show you is what one of our hi-res models is showing this morning. It illustrates the first scenario almost perfectly. The simulated radar loop begins at 7:00 PM today and runs through 10:00 PM tomorrow evening. You can see two distinct rounds of storms. Please keep in mind that this is simply a model run, and that the radar will not look exactly like this. It does give you an idea of what could unfold with the first scenario, though. While at least some severe risk will exist for North Central Texas on Tuesday, the magnitude will be impacted by what happens tonight and tomorrow morning. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. To make sure you don't miss any updates from Texas Storm Watch, visit the blog daily and check the Facebook page.