9:00 AM CDT | October 31, 2018
Happy Halloween, everyone! It is going to be a stormy day for much of the state today. Severe Weather is also expected, and a few Tornadoes appear likely this afternoon and into tonight. Since a lot of people have activities planned, it is important to have a way to get the latest watch and warning information from the National Weather Service. Now, for the detailed discussion...
This morning, there is a frontal boundary that has become nearly stationary from about Paris, to Mesquite, to just south of San Angelo. Little movement is anticipated until the storms overtake it this afternoon and evening. There is a cluster of storms approaching Abilene that is capable of producing heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. We should see the intensity of this line increase over the next several hours, particularly in the warm sector. Additional storms are possible ahead of this line. I have attached a recent radar loop with the CAPE (instability) values overlaid. This reflects where the frontal boundary resides very well.
The Storm Prediction Center made two main adjustments with their latest outlook. The first was to bring a Slight Risk for Large Hail a bit farther north into the I-20 corridor. This includes southern parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. A Marginal Risk remains for the rest of Northern Texas. Widespread Severe Weather is NOT anticipated north of the boundary.
Along and south of the boundary, an environment supportive of all types of Severe Weather will exist by this afternoon. The greatest risk will be across Eastern/Southeast Texas. Given a stronger, slower system (as discussed in the Facebook Group yesterday evening), an Enhanced Risk now extends into East Central Texas. Damaging Winds will be the primary hazard, followed by Large Hail and a few Tornadoes. The Tornado Risk will be most pronounced during the late afternoon and evening hours. Places such as Palestine, Bryan, College Station, Lufkin, and Houston will see this Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather. The risk will eventually shift into Louisiana later this evening and overnight. A Strong Tornado or two is possible.
For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find Texas Storm Watch on Facebook. I recommend joining the Facebook Group as well. If you have any storm pictures or severe weather reports you would like to share, please do. Remember, ONLY take weather pictures when it is safe to do so. I will be posting updates on Facebook into tonight. Stay safe, everyone!