3:15 PM CDT | October 26, 2018
October has been cool for much of the state. Temperatures have felt more like November and December in many areas. Temperatures are moderating today and will climb above normal tomorrow. Widespread 70*F's and even 80*F's are expected this weekend. The weather models have trended slower and weaker with Sunday's cold front. As such, it will not have much of an impact on temperatures, except for the Texas Panhandle. Places like Amarillo will be several degrees cooler on Sunday compared to Saturday. I have attached the 4:00 PM temperatures predicted by this morning's NAM model for both Saturday and Sunday. It gives you an idea of the warmth we are expecting to see.
This late surge in temperatures will stunt the cooling trend the state has seen over the last 15 days. As such, the western two-thirds of the state will likely end with a cooler than normal October while the eastern third is slightly warmer than normal. About a week ago, I said after everything is said and done, the entire state should see a cooler than normal October. This was assuming that this next cold front would drop temperatures below normal again. Since the front is looking weaker now, it will not be enough to bring East Texas below normal for the month.
It still appears that parts of the state will see increasing rain chances late Tuesday-Wednesday. The good news is that a few weather models have trended more progressive with the system. The European model, for instance, shows the state drying out before trick-or-treating Wednesday evening. The GFS (American) model, however, still shows a wet Halloween for most of North Central/Northeast Texas. Let's hope the European is onto something with its more progressive solution. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. To make sure you don't miss any updates from Texas Storm Watch, visit the blog daily and check the Facebook page.