2:45 PM CDT | October 7, 2018
There is a risk for Severe Weather across parts of Texas through Tuesday. Today's risk is not that great, thankfully. A Marginal Risk is in place for western and northwestern portions of the state. A Slight Risk exists for Eastern New Mexico and far West Texas. The risk will increase tomorrow as our primary trough gets closer. A Slight Risk is highlighted for much of West Texas on Monday with a Marginal Risk to the north and east. Large Hail and Damaging Winds are the main concerns, but a brief Tornado is possible. Tuesday is when I believe we could see a more organized risk. More on this below.
The trough ejects into the region on Tuesday. We will see strengthening wind fields and shear as a result. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the western part of the state in the morning. If the environment is able to destabilize ahead of this activity across North Central Texas, conditions would become increasingly favorable for Severe Weather during the afternoon hours.
Right now, the models show an axis of moderate instability developing from Central Texas northward into Eastern Kansas and parts of Missouri Tuesday afternoon. Ongoing storms would strengthen as they tracked into a more unstable area with additional storm development possible. I drew up a quick graphic from one of this morning's models. The base graphic shows the mid-level winds at 4:00 PM Tuesday. I added the (1) location of the low-level jet, (2) mean upper-level winds, and (3) axis of instability around that time. Notice how the wind fields north of the Red River are almost perfectly parallel. This favors a linear storm mode with Damaging Winds the primary hazard for this area. Large Hail and brief Tornadoes would be secondary concerns. As you look at the wind fields over Texas, they have more of a southwesterly component and are a bit less parallel. This would suggest that a few Supercell structures will be possible from the Red River Valley into North Central Texas. This means that the Large Hail/Tornado Risk will be slightly greater here than areas farther north.
You can see the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center below. There is a Slight Risk for North Central Texas and points north-northeast. A Marginal Risk surrounds it. Expect more adjustments as details are ironed out. I just wanted to illustrate what *could* unfold on Tuesday. There is still the possibility that widespread rain and cloud cover could limit instability and the overall severe potential. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. To make sure you don't miss any updates from Texas Storm Watch, visit the blog daily and check the Facebook page.