Analyzing The Latest Model Trends For Monday

7:15 PM CST | November 10, 2018

There have not been any significant forecast changes since yesterday afternoon. A Winter Storm Watch (counties in blue) has been issued for parts of the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. A few inches to a half a foot of snow may occur across parts of the watch area from Sunday evening through Monday morning. Snow bands are difficult to forecast, so the area of heaviest accumulations has the potential to shift a bit. Minor accumulations are possible outside the watch area, but impacts will be less. Now, to the next item on the list...

If you watched my video update yesterday, you know that there will be a secondary disturbance that follows the first one. The first piece of energy is currently diving through the Pacific Northwest. This evening's models will have higher quality data available to them since it is now inside the U.S. Upper Air Network. The second piece of energy will follow it, pushing out of Canada and into the Northern Rockies on Sunday. The models were in good agreement on both pieces of energy merging over the Southern High Plains and pushing eastward. Beginning this morning, however, some of the guidance wants to take and close the energy off near/to the west of Texas. Well to the north, over Hudson Bay, there will be a significant low pressure system. The majority of weather models still show the energy over the Plains being picked up as the trough axis from the Hudson Bay low swings eastward. It is this scenario that is being reflected in your local forecasts. This is a loop from this morning's NAM model illustrating this general idea. It starts this evening and goes through Tuesday morning.

The other solution cannot be discounted though. Closed lows are not unusual in this part of the country. If the energy does start to close off and misses the trough axis to the northeast, there would be some changes to the forecast (some good, some bad). Right now, we just wait and see. 'Gotta love Texas weather! :)

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