Fast-Moving System Friday; Stronger System Sunday

10:30 PM CST | November 22, 2018

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! I hope everyone had a good day today. A fast-moving system will track into the High Plains overnight and through the rest of the Plains on Friday. Moisture will still be limited, so there are only some low rain chances for Eastern Texas on Friday. Otherwise, very mild and dry conditions are expected on Friday. How mild? Places like Dallas and Waco should see highs in the low-70*F's with mid-70*F's farther south. The coolest weather will be in Northeast Texas where highs will be close to seasonal averages. This is the GFS (Global Forecast System) model's predicted temperatures at 3:00 PM Friday.

00z GFS Temperatures Friday Afternoon November 23, 2018

Warmer weather is expected on Saturday as strong southerly flow returns in advance of another system. This system will be much stronger than its predecessor. A surface low will develop in Eastern Colorado late Saturday. This low will sweep east-southeast near the KS/OK border Saturday night, before tracking east and then east-northeast on Sunday. This will drag a cool front through the state Saturday night-Sunday. A dry frontal passage is expected. On the north side of this surface low, wrap-around moisture will be sufficient for a few inches of snow from Kansas into the Great Lakes. Check out what this evening's NAM (North American Mesoscale Model) is suggesting by early Sunday evening! Don't worry, we will see our chances soon enough. We have already had one winter storm in the Texas Panhandle this season.

00z NAM Weekend Snowfall Valid November 24-25, 2018

We will see a brief period of calmer weather, but I expect a more active pattern to return around the 1st of December. I believe that this is when we will enter the second cycle of our weather pattern. The weather models seem to be slowly coming around to the idea of another trough impacting the Western and Central US around that time. Similar to the start of the first cycle in early October, we will probably see a warm-up precede this trough with increasing gulf moisture. Colder weather is likely to follow. We should have a clearer picture of what will unfold in a few days.

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