Skeptical Of Morning Weather Model Trend

11:40 AM CDT | November 30, 2018

The SPC downgraded the I-35 corridor of North Texas today. This is in response to a few weather models backing off on storm development in western North Texas late this afternoon. These models still show severe storms across Northeast/East Texas late today and tonight. Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and a few Tornadoes are possible, especially across the Enhanced Risk where a Strong Tornado cannot be ruled out.

Personally, I am a bit skeptical of the latest trends with keeping areas along and just west of the I-35 corridor capped this afternoon and early evening. Partly cloudy skies to the west of Dallas-Fort Worth are already allowing temperatures to rise. With strong forcing arriving from the west later this afternoon, I would think that it would weaken the cap enough for isolated storms. Hopefully, the latest weather models are right, but I would still keep an eye on the weather. You know how Texas weather can be!

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SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook Valid November 30, 2018