5:00 PM CST | November 25, 2018
If you are wondering what happened to the cold weather, let me take a few minutes to explain. In a November 14th post, I mentioned that “At the start of the new weather pattern in early October, we saw above normal temperatures ahead of a western trough. This system brought showers and storms, some severe, to the region. This was followed by cooler weather.” Based on recent model data, it looks like the weather pattern *should* begin cycling again Nov 30th-Dec 1st. The trough being advertised by the models will be the first to break the milder weather ahead, similar to what happened at the start of the first cycle in October. Highs at DFW for the first 8 days of October ranged from 82-91*F - WARM. When that trough ejected into the Plains on the 9th, it dragged a cold front and cooler temperatures into the state. More upper-level energy followed and brought even cooler temps. By the 15th and 16th, temps were a good 20*F+ BELOW normal! Most locations in Texas saw the same trend.
Other factors also point toward colder weather, but we may not feel the real effects of it until later in the first week of December. This would no doubt be a few days later than what I first anticipated a week or so ago. This adjustment is because the events that would mark the start of the second cycle have yet to actually occur. What the models show and what actually occurs are two separate things. Once these events come to fruition, we will have a preliminary cycle length that will get more refined as we progress through the season.
In short, I expect much more active weather to return to the state soon. There should be quite a bit to discuss in the weeks ahead. :)