2:30 PM CST | November 23, 2018
Last night, I discussed the weather pattern and mentioned that we would likely see the start of the second cycle around December 1st. The models have been ALL over the place for the last several days. There does appear to be some agreement brewing over the last few runs, though.
With the recurring cycle theory, the same features come into play every cycle. The new weather pattern began in early October, and we are still in the first cycle. Once it begins cycling again, we will have a general idea of the cycle length. It is looking more likely that the weather pattern will begin cycling around next weekend. This would place the initial cycle length around 53 days.
This is what this morning's European weather model is depicting next Friday and Saturday. Compare this scenario to what we witnessed October 8-10th. It is not a coincidence - it is the recurring cycle theory. Other weather models such as the GFS, which is the American long-range forecast model, has shown similar solutions off and on for the couple days; however, it has been less consistent than the European.
We should have a much clearer picture by the early to middle part of next week. The takeaways right now are that (1) the weather pattern will likely begin cycling around December 1st and that (2) we will likely see a period of unsettled weather when it does. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find us on Facebook!