When Will Our Weather Pattern Begin Cycling?

10:00 PM CST | November 18, 2018

A fast-moving disturbance will roll across the region on Wednesday. Moisture will be very limited with this system, so despite being fairly dynamic, it will offer most Texans little to no rain chance. Another disturbance is being forecast by the models on Friday. This energy will likely slide just to our north, but it could offer slightly better rain chances across the eastern part of the state. I am not expecting any real eventful weather this week.

As mentioned on October 18th, our weather pattern could cycle anywhere from about November 18th to December 8th. The next pieces of energy are still associated with this first cycle. When our weather pattern begins cycling again and moves into the second cycle, we should see a much more significant western trough take shape. This is unlikely over the next week. The long-range model guidance suggests more significant energy in the western United States by the very end of the month or early December. In the above post, I said that "Given a stronger jet stream during the winter, these systems usually (but not always) dig farther south. Could our region see a winter storm in cycle 2? Cycle 3??" My thoughts are the same as they were a month ago.

You have probably heard me mention the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) in previous discussions, particularly when discussing the tropics. For more information on the MJO visit the link above. For this discussion, all you need to know is that when it moves into phases 8, 1, and 2 (it tracks counter-clockwise across the globe), it makes our part of the country more prone to cold outbreaks this time of year. As you can see, the latest models show it tracking into the more favorable phases by early December. We could see an interesting start to December in my opinion. We will know soon enough. :)

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