Next Weather System Arrives Mid-Week

10:30 AM CST | December 9, 2018

While the recent system underperformed in many parts of the state, the Lubbock area saw quite a bit of snow. Up to 10 inches fell in that part of the state with a few inches in the Wichita Falls and Abilene areas. Tonight, there will be the potential for some patchy freezing fog/light freezing drizzle, mainly across Northwest Texas. This *may* occur as far south as northern and western portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex late tonight/early Monday morning. Thereafter, temperatures will begin moderating in advance of our next system.

Freezing Fog Potential North Texas December 9-10, 2018

The weather models show two systems impacting the state Wednesday into Friday. Rain and a few thunderstorms are possible with the first disturbance. Limited moisture and instability will likely preclude a severe risk. The second system may bring a risk for winter weather to *parts* of the state, in addition to more rain chances. The potential for wintry precipitation will depend on the strength of the system and the associated cold temperatures aloft as no significant intrusion of cold air is expected. It is certainly possible most or all of the precipitation remains liquid during this period. We have a few days to get a better handle on it.

Our weather pattern has been cycling around 53 days so far this second cycle. The cycle length will become more refined over the next several weeks. The recent system is directly related to what we saw in mid-October. Below, I have attached two graphics. The first depicts the 500mb level of our atmosphere at 0000z October 16th, which is 6:00 PM October 15th local time. The second graphic shows the conditions at 0000z December 7th. You can see the resemblance between the two graphics. Both featured a system moving into the Southwest US. During the first cycle in mid-October, the system cut off to our west. With a stronger jet stream in December, the system continued eastward in this second cycle. Looking ahead, the weather around Christmas could be active for Texas. The coldest conditions, however, may not be until the very end of December/early January. I will be looking closer at this part of the weather pattern in the days ahead.

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500mb Analysis Valid 6:00 PM October 15, 2018 500mb Analysis Valid 6:00 PM December 6, 2018