8:30 PM CST | January 15, 2019
This discussion is going to focus primarily on how these next weather systems factor into the recurring cycle theory. What happens over the next few days may warrant a correction in the timeline of our next couple weather-makers. Back on January 8th, I published an article on the website which touched on something I mentioned on the Facebook page a day earlier. I mostly discussed two things - (1) we would likely see a weather system impact the region between January 18th and 21st and (2) we would see increasing storm chances with this system followed by colder air. I further elaborated on this part of the cycle a few days later here. I thought it was part of the pattern we saw around 10/9-10/10 and 11/30-12/01.
This assumption was based on the fact that the first system to cycle again in this second cycle occurred 53 days earlier. The next few occurred a day or two sooner than the first. In short, it appeared that the preliminary cycle length was trending downward a bit. The January 18th-21st timing would have placed it 49-52 days apart. Now that we are closer, it is looking like this next system may actually be related to what we saw around November 25th, not November 30th. If it is related to the 25th, it would be about 54 days apart, compared to 49 days. Since the weather pattern has been cycling about 52 days apart, it makes it challenging. Let me illustrate what I am seeing, and why I believe this could be what we are witnessing take shape. First off, here is a loop of the November 25th part of the pattern. You can see a distinct piece of energy in the Rockies at the start of the video. This southern piece of energy tracks southeast through the Central Plains before lifting into the Ohio Valley and being absorbed by a much larger trough.
Now, check out what this morning's GFS (commonly referred to as the "American Model") is showing Friday-Sunday. It is very similar. The same features are in play but with seasonal differences. Why does this have an impact on what we will see next week? Let me explain below.
Continuing with this train of thought, we would probably see something like the following unfold after the upcoming system. On November 30th, we saw a weather system move into the Plains from the west. As you know from the previous discussions, it brought storms followed by colder air. We saw an extended cold period to start December with some wintry weather in the Texas Panhandle. The difference this time would be that, its predecessor will have already broken down the warm-up ahead of it. Our upcoming spring-like temperatures will come to an abrupt halt Friday night-Saturday with this next system. Temperatures will try to warm-up (more like "thaw") ahead of the next system, but it would be an ill-fated attempt.
The setup next week would favor troughing over the heart of the United States, resulting in more cold weather for the region. For what it is worth, the European model strongly supports this idea. A few of the other models suggest a similar scenario, but they are not as consistent. As I have said before, what the model guidance shows and what actually happens are two different things. We have more time to see how this plays out, but I wanted to discuss what I am seeing for those who enjoy following this "recurring cycle theory".