3:00 PM CST | January 8, 2019
Enjoy the dry weather because more moisture is on the way. An upper-level system will impact the state beginning Thursday night. Rain chances will increase across the western parts of the state by this time. This activity will spread northeast through Friday morning with additional activity developing across North Central Texas during the day. Moisture and instability will be in short supply, so I expect mostly showers with isolated thunder at this time. The good news - no severe weather. Here is a look at the potential rainfall amounts over the next 5 days. Most of this will occur from Thursday night through Friday evening.
I was asked on the Facebook page if we can expect more cold weather and wintry precipitation this season. The answer is "yes" - I do expect more opportunities despite the recent mild weather. Here is what I said yesterday afternoon:
"I expect more cold weather with the possibility for wintry precipitation. We have this next system, and we should see another system, likely between January 18th and 21st. The part of the weather pattern that will produce the second system brought storms and severe weather to the Southern Plains back in early October and at the very end of November, in the first and second cycles respectively. I do not expect the potential for winter weather to be too great with this system, BUT colder weather followed in each of the previous cycles. This means that things will probably get more interesting in terms of winter weather by late January. I will be discussing this more in the days ahead."
That 18th-21st period is just now really getting into the range of most of the model guidance. For what it is worth, the European model and several ensembles this morning show a system approaching from the west by the 18th. As mentioned above, it is more likely to be a rain producer than a winter weather producer, but nothing is set in stone at this point. The good thing about the recurring cycle theory is that it is based on archived upper-level charts and temperature data. This means it is not being impacted by the government shutdown right now, but other forecasting tools that require greater resources are unavailable...at least to the public. This makes things a bit more difficult. The recurring cycle theory tells us when we will likely see a system and how it could evolve, but traditional model guidance and related tools are still needed to "fine-tune" the forecast.