1:30 PM CST | January 14, 2019
Temperatures will really begin to moderate tomorrow, climbing above normal for most areas Wednesday through Friday. Our next weather system will push into the Plains late Friday-Saturday, according to the latest weather model. Moisture will be on the increase ahead of this system, particularly across the eastern half of the state. We should see showers and storms develop along and ahead of the cold front during this time. A few stronger storms will be possible in the east, given the setup; however, it is too early to get into specifics.
Regarding the risk for Winter Weather, the greatest risk appears to be across the Texas Panhandle/far Northwest Texas and portions of Oklahoma. While temperatures will drop significantly behind the front, most of the guidance shows the lower levels of the atmosphere too dry to support precipitation farther to the south. It is not that areas farther north will have greater moisture - it is that there will be greater upper-level lift near the core of the system. Widespread freezes are expected Saturday night for all but South Texas. Keep this in mind if you have any sensitive plants or animals. Now is the time to prepare.
Thereafter, we should see another system impact the region later next week. There is something I am watching with this system which will shed more light on the next one. I do not want to get ahead of myself, though, as the system has not moved onshore yet. I will continue to keep an eye on things, as at least some changes can be expected over the next several days. Enjoy the calm because it will not last too much longer. :)