4:00 PM CST | February 14, 2019
Happy Valentine's Day, everyone! It is an awesome day across the state as strong southerly flow sends temperatures into the 70*F's and even 80*F's. Unfortunately, very chilly air is knocking on our doorstep this afternoon. The leading edge of the cold air is dropping through Kansas at this time. Downtown Kansas City had fallen to 36*F as of 3:30 PM - more than 20*F colder than they were at 1:00 PM. The frontal boundary should reach the I-20 corridor of North Texas by sunrise. By that time, temperatures will range from the low-40*F's along the Red River to around 50*F at DFW Airport. You can see what one of our most recent weather models is showing at 6:00 AM. Please keep in mind that this is a model, so it will not look exactly like this. It does give you the general idea, though...
How are the models handling the cold air upstream today? They have been a few degrees too warm in most areas, BUT I am not seeing any significant deviations from what is happening and what this morning's models predicted. I would be more concerned if they were like 10*F or so too warm - which has happened before. The edge of the cooler air along I-20 may erode during the day before pushing southward again by Friday evening. As such, temperatures across North Texas will vary greatly tomorrow afternoon. To the south and southwest of Dallas-Fort Worth, mid-70*F's to lower-80*F's are likely. Meanwhile, folks along the Red River may top out near 50*F. Between these areas, there is "bust" potential with tomorrow's temperatures.
The sloshing boundary with a sharp temperature gradient remains in play on Saturday, but temperatures will fall state-wide on Sunday. A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives early next week with the potential for winter weather as a system impacts the region. The National Weather Service in Amarillo has bumped up snow chances (up to 40%) for the Texas Panhandle Monday-Tuesday. Precipitation type switches to more of a rain, freezing rain, and sleet mix to the southeast. The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has re-added a low chance (20-30%) of a wintry mix in western North Texas (such as Bowie, Jacksboro, Graham, and Breckenridge) by Tuesday night. For the latter area, precipitation amounts appear light at this time with impacts unlikely. Nonetheless, it will be monitored as we get closer.
This is all part of the cycling weather pattern, and what we have been discussing here for two weeks now. This will not be the only system to impact us over the next 10-12 days either. After we get through this system, I will discuss the one I anticipate will follow. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find us on Facebook.