Elevated Fire Risk Near & West Of I-35 Saturday

Texas Satellite Friday Afternoon February 22, 2019

1:30 PM CST | February 22, 2019

Clouds are widespread across the state early this afternoon. We have some showers and isolated storms across the eastern parts of the state. None of this activity is severe, but radar does indicate some small hail is likely occurring with the strongest cells. There are two areas where a severe storm or two will be possible through tonight. The first area is East Texas, where the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk. The second area is the Texas Panhandle. As the system swings into the region late tonight, I personally believe we could see an isolated severe storm in the panhandle. The main risks would be penny to quarter-size hail and 50 to 60 mph winds. If this occurs, it would likely be after midnight.

SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook Valid Friday, February 22, 2019

This is what one of our latest weather models is showing through noon tomorrow. Please keep in mind that the radar will not look exactly like this; however, it does give you an idea of what is expected. Each frame is one hour and is valid from noon today through noon tomorrow. You can see the moisture pushing out of New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle late tonight. Not only will the panhandle see some showers and storms, but light snow accumulations are likely to the north and west of Amarillo. Farther east, it shows that rain is more scattered in nature. This will change around daybreak, when I expect an uptick in the coverage and strength of activity near/E of I-35.

HRRR Simulated Radar Valid Friday-Saturday, February 22-23, 2019

The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe weather on Saturday for far East Texas with a Marginal Risk for the rest of East Texas. Large Hail and Damaging Winds will be the main hazards, but a brief Tornado cannot be ruled out. All strong storms should exit the state early tomorrow afternoon. The greatest risk for severe weather and tornadoes will be to our east on Saturday, from the Ark-La-Miss into western Tennessee. If you have friends or family in that part of the country, make sure they are aware of the enhanced risk for severe weather.

SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook Valid Saturday, February 23, 2019

Behind the front on Saturday, winds will be strong out of the west with clouds clearing from west to east. These strong westerly winds will usher drier air into the state, making for hazardous fire conditions. The latest outlook (see image below) calls for critical fire conditions across parts of Southwest/West Central Texas with an elevated risk into the I-35/35W corridor. Cooler weather returns tomorrow night and Sunday, but it will not be too cold, thankfully.

For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find us on Facebook. I will post another update or two by tonight on the Facebook page and group, so be sure to check back!

SPC Day 2 Fire Outlook Valid Saturday, February 23, 2019