Temperatures A Rollercoaster Ride Into March

6:45 PM CST | February 25, 2019

It was a nice day across the state today. Temperatures will be similar for most areas on Tuesday, but there will be a low chance for rain/drizzle in the eastern portion of the state. This may hold temperatures down in Northeast Texas; however, it could be worse - as we will see by this weekend. Most areas will rise well above normal on Wednesday before a cold front drops temperatures below normal. This frontal boundary will likely reside near a Dalhart, to Amarillo, to Childress line by noon Wednesday. It will continue pushing southward, possibly reaching a Lubbock, to Abilene, to Gainesville line before sunset. The timing of the front will be refined, but expect much colder temperatures behind the boundary. I have attached a video showing the forecast temperatures for several cities across the northern half of the state. More on the rest of the forecast below.

On Thursday, the coolest temperatures will reside across North Central/Northeast Texas. We will see a big warm-up on Friday before another front comes crashing into the state by early evening. Most of the model guidance advertises yet another reinforcing shot of cold air later this weekend or early next week. Temperatures are likely to be well below normal for the state during this period.

There are some signals that a disturbance could impact the South Central US around Monday, but it is still way too early to begin discussing the possibility for winter weather. The National Weather Service in Fort Worth wrote an excellent discussion this afternoon which touches on this topic... Here is the excerpt:

"The cold temperatures will linger into the next work week with the cold dense air mass in place. Some models have hinted that there may be some moisture to work with by the end of this week and into the next, but it is important to note that confidence in the 6-7 day time scale is very low. Raw model output and precipitation type algorithms do have their flaws, and many images have already been making their rounds in the internet. Models will continue to flip-flop in the coming days, and given the probability of no wintry precipitation is much higher than that of any wintry precipitation, will continue to advertise a dry forecast where temperatures are at or near freezing."

For what it is worth, the last time North Texas saw a decent snow in March was back in 2010 (you can see video of it here). I will continue to keep tabs on the weather. By Friday, we will hopefully have a clearer picture of what to expect later this weekend/early next week. Too much uncertainty exists at this time to say one way or the other. Any outlet that tells you otherwise at this point is being disingenuous. Those who are saying "yes, we will see snow" are not being upfront and are more than likely trying to get extra "likes" and pageviews. On the flip side, you will have large-scale outlets firmly saying "no, we will not" to distance themselves from the others to do the same. All I can say is we will have to wait and see how everything unfolds in the coming days and go from there. Simply put - what we don't know, we don't know. :)

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