Tuesday Night Update On Tomorrow's Cold Front

11:00 PM CST | February 26, 2019

I wanted to write a quick update on the progression of our cold front. As noted on Facebook this evening, the weather models show the cold front crashing into North Texas a couple hours earlier. A couple weather models are also showing colder temperatures behind the boundary. Let me compare two of tonight's weather models. The first is the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model, which typically handles these types of airmasses better than most of its competitors. The loop begins at 12:00 PM Wednesday and continues through 12:00 PM Thursday.

00z NAM Forecast Temperatures 12 PM February 27-28, 2019

This particular model shows the freezing line near a Bonham, to Decatur, to Graham line by midnight tomorrow night. It brings this line as far south as a Paris, to Greenville, to Weatherford, to Abilene line by daybreak Thursday morning. Now, let's compare this model to another one - the GFS (Global Forecast System A.K.A. the 'American' model).

00z GFS Forecast Temperatures 12 PM February 27-28, 2019

The farthest south this model brings the freezing line through daybreak Thursday is Vernon. This is quite a difference between the two models! Rather than take either model at face value, I want to compare how the two have verified today. I am going to use Norman, Oklahoma as an example. This morning's NAM and GFS models had predicted a 6:00 PM temperature of 38*F and 41*F, respectively. The early afternoon runs of the two models predicted 35*F and 41*F, respectively. At 6:00 PM, the actual temperature at Norman was 30*F. While both were too warm, the higher resolution NAM had begun to catch onto the actual trends and made a downward adjustment. The GFS failed to recognize the just how cold the air was behind the boundary.

The truth probably lies somewhere between these two weather models. My gut feeling is that it may not be as cold as the NAM, but it will lean in that direction. Areas of drizzle will be possible tomorrow night and into early Thursday morning near and to the north of the front. If surface temperatures are as cold as the NAM is suggesting, it would bring up the possibility for freezing drizzle across parts of Northwest Texas Wednesday night-Thursday morning. While nothing to be concerned about right now, it is something I will keep an eye on tomorrow. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. You can also find us on Facebook.