2:00 PM CDT | March 22, 2019
Strong storms will develop across the Southern High Plains later this afternoon. This activity will intensify and impact the Texas Panhandle and parts of West Texas. The SPC has a slight risk for severe weather across this area. A marginal risk surrounds it and also extends into Southwest Texas. The activity in the marginal risk area will be less intense and more isolated in nature compared to the slight risk. The primary hazards will be large hail to the size of half dollars or larger and damaging winds. A brief tornado or two will be possible, primarily in the Texas Panhandle. Storm intensity will gradually taper off late this evening. Below the risk graphic, I have attached what one of the most recent models is suggesting from 4:00 to 10:00 PM. While the radar will not look "exactly" like this, it gives you the general idea. Next up... the weekend.
The forecast for Saturday has become a little less certain. For one thing, the models have sped up the system a bit. What does this mean? There will probably be some showers and maybe a couple storms ongoing in western North Texas Saturday morning. This activity will shift eastward. I do not anticipate much in the way of severe weather with the early activity. If this activity shifts east of I-35 by early to mid-afternoon, there may be enough surface heating to the west of I-35 for more development. This second round would have a greater potential of becoming severe as it tracks eastward. Officially, the SPC does not have any risk posted for Saturday. That said, there is this conditional risk I am seeing, which I mentioned on Facebook yesterday evening. The SREF (Short-Range Ensemble Forecast) model is also picking up on it. You can see the low severe probabilities it has for western North Texas toward sunset. Like the last graphic, please keep in mind that it is just a weather model. The purpose of sharing it is to give you a better idea of the area that I will be watching.
Worst case scenario is that daytime heating on Saturday is strong enough to ignite a few severe storms off the dryline to the west of Dallas-Fort Worth. While widespread severe weather would be unlikely, a few cells could produce large hail and damaging winds. If the first round lingers and daytime heating is delayed/limited, then this second round would be unlikely.
On Sunday, there will be the potential for a few severe storms in North Texas, mainly during the evening hours. The favored area appears to be generally east of a Gainesville to Stephenville line. Large hail and damging winds would be the main concerns. Some adjustments can be expected as we get closer. The good news is that there is nothing in the data to suggest any "outbreaks" this weekend. The severe storms should be more "hit and miss" in nature. For the latest local weather information for your area, please visit the National Weather Service website. To help make sure you do not miss any updates, LIKE the Facebook page and join the Facebook group.